Thursday, August 26, 2010


Yahoo Finance has an article today about the Hindenburg Omen which is supposed to warn of a stock market downturn.  What is it?  Here's what they say.
    * -- The daily number of NYSE new 52-week highs and the daily number of new 52-week lows must both be greater than 2.2% of total NYSE issues traded that day.
    * -- The NYSE's 10-week moving average is rising.
    * -- The McClellan Oscillator (a technical measure of "overbought" vs. "oversold" conditions) is negative on that same day.
    * -- New 52-week highs cannot be more than twice the new 52-week lows. This condition is absolutely mandatory.

Now I don't know if you remember what I think about statistics but my opinion is pretty low and it gets lower with every increase in complexity.  You gotta know the Hindenburg Omen is down there a ways!  I don't have much time for stock market chartists anyway.  I just keep remembering the disclaimer on every prospectus:  past performance is no guarantee of future results.  If you are that worried that the market is going to go down (and of course it will from time to time), then get out.  Back after the dot-com meltdown a friend said his father had lost about a third of his money and was taking the remainder out of the market for good.  Doing that, he missed out on a great rally but maybe he slept better knowing his money was safe.  Whatever works for you!

Have a good one!

No comments: